Bayesian inference of river plastics in the South Atlantic Ocean

This work was published in Frontiers in Marine Science with a “Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean (2022)” by C.M. Pierard, D. Bassotto, F. Meirer and E. van Sebille.

Description

We developed a Bayesian inference framework to determine the probability that a piece of floating plastic found at sea came from a particular river by combining river emission data with Lagrangian simulations. The framework was tested in the South Atlantic Ocean, showcasing that particle age and location define the source probabilities.

Plastic emitted from principal rivers (clustered)

Lagrangian Simulations of plastic from river deltas

Posterior probability that a piece of floating plastic found at sea came from a particular river

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